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PMO Branch - New Techniques for Evaluating and Forecasting Project Performance


Project phases and control accounts provide a logical framework for evaluating a project’s cost efficiency (on-budget) and its rate of progress (on-schedule). In addition, procurement contracts can minimize risk for many planned expenditures. Control Account Value Analysis (CAVA) combines these two approaches to provide a straightforward technique for managing both projects and portfolios.

By evaluating ongoing project performance and progress, managers can discover precisely when and where to take corrective action. In addition, executives can evaluate their portfolios of current projects with greater confidence.

While earned value management (EVM) has been promoted for performance evaluation, in practice most organizations and managers find it very difficult to implement and unreliable. In addition, EVM ignores the risk reduction provided by firm contracts for future work.

My new technique, Control Account Value Analysis (CAVA), compares the planned and actual cost of each completed control account to assess cost efficiency, and their planned and actual completion dates to assess ongoing progress. It also tracks vendor agreements for future work in assessing the cost performance picture. The key is to divide the project schedule into phases and control accounts that are appropriate to the work flow and the need for gate reviews.

After the event, the speaker will send a spreadsheet model that implements the CAVA approach to attendees who request it.

Learning Objectives:

• Understand the Control Account Value Analysis (CAVA) concept, and its advantages over conventional earned value analysis.

• Rapidly calculate useful earned value indicators and prepare reliable cost/time estimates at completion using CAVA.

• Summarize those CAVA results and assess project status – including areas that need attention.


dougBower.pngDouglas Bower is an independent project management consultant and educator, who supports organizations that want to improve project delivery through application of recognised techniques by trained technical staff. He teaches at both Ryerson University and the University of Toronto.

As Manager, E-Business with the Ontario Government, Doug led a team that actively promoted the adoption of e-business techniques and strategies by small and medium enterprises, and the availability of broadband services in Ontario. For over 20 years before joining the government, Doug directed and managed complex multimillion-dollar projects within major Canadian corporations such as CIBC, and also provided consulting services to large IT and telecom firms, including IBM, CGI, Telus Mobility and Bell Canada.

Dr. Bower has an MBA from York University, an MSc in Telecommunications and Network Management from Syracuse University, and a Doctor of Project Management from RMIT University in Melbourne, Australia. Doug has been an invited speaker at many project management conferences in Canada, the US, the UK and Australia. His research on project planning, phases and earned value has been published in professional journals.


6:00 pm - 6:30 pm - Event Registration, Networking and Light Meal

6:30 pm - 7:45 pm - Presentation with Q & A

7:45 pm - 8:15 pm - Wrap up and Networking​

Fees: (subject to HST)

PMI Toronto Members - $25.00

Non-Members and Guests - $35.00

PDUs: 1.5 (Technical 1.0, Leadership 0.5)


Cancellations must be received by 5:00 pm, 5 business days before the event and must be sent in writing by email to events@pmitoronto.ca. There will be a 20% administration fee charged for cancellations, subtracted from the refund. Cancellation/refund requests will not be accepted less than 5 business days before the event. However, substitutions are welcome. Please let us know by 12:00 noon the day before the event of the person you wish to substitute by emailing events@pmitoronto.ca.

Photography & Filming: Photographs, audio, and video are sometimes captured during PMI Toronto events. By registering, attendees hereby grant PMI Toronto and its representatives permission to photograph and/or record them at events, and distribute (both now and in the future) the attendee's image or voice in photographs, social media, videotapes, electronic reproductions, and audiotapes of such events and activities.

It is no longer possible to register for this event

It is no longer possible to register for this event


Type of activity: PMI Toronto PMO Branch

Date: May 21st, 2019

Hour: 6:00PM to 8:30PM

# of PDUs: 1.5


Members: $25.00

Non members and Guests: $30.00


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